Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
