Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
